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英伟达财报即将登场！高盛：若不释放这三大利好 股价恐仍将下行_我的网站
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China reported 522,000 newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in July, including 487 severe cases and one related death with cases showing a fluctuating upward trend, China's national disease control authority said.
The current uptick in infections represents another regular cyclical wave, with its severity comparable to surges seen in the past two years. The upward growth curve has slowed markedly, and the country is now on the plateau phase of this epidemic peak, said the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese CDC) on Thursday.
All tested infection samples were confirmed to be the Omicron variant, with the NB.1.8.1 strain and its sublineages accounting for the majority of circulating cases, the Chinese CDC said.
A Beijing-based respiratory disease specialist told the Global Times that waning population immunity, continued virus mutations that weaken existing antibody protection, and increased summer travel have contributed to the recent modest rise in infections. However, there is no evidence that the virus has become more pathogenic. Nationwide infections appear to be nearing their peak and case numbers may begin falling in late August.
According to sentinel hospital surveillance data, from June 29-July 5 to July 27-August 2, the proportion of influenza-like illness among all outpatient and emergency visits at China's 1,041 COVID-19 and influenza sentinel hospitals edged up with slight fluctuations, standing at 4.3 percent, 4.4 percent, 4.5 percent, 4.4 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.
During the same period, the COVID-19 positivity rate among patients with influenza-like illness in outpatient and emergency departments rose for consecutive weeks.
Several factors drove the fluctuating rise in COVID-19 cases in July. Population immunity has waned, as more than six months have passed since the last major wave of infections for most people, while continued SARS-CoV-2 mutations have reduced the protection provided by existing antibodies, Li Tongzeng, a respiratory disease medic from Beijing You An Hospital to the Capital Medical University, told the Global Times on Friday.
These factors, combined with increased travel and population mobility during the summer vacation, contributed to the recent small-scale surge. Based on patterns observed in recent years, COVID-19 infections tend to rise every six to eight months as population immunity declines, said Li.
The expert noted that while the virus continues to mutate, there is no evidence that it has become more pathogenic. Clinical data show that most patients develop only mild symptoms, with very few progressing to pneumonia or requiring hospitalization.
The Chinese CDC noted on Thursday that since COVID-19 was reclassified as a Category B infectious disease under Category B management, it has evolved into a prevalent, recurring respiratory infectious disease in China, with one to two epidemic fluctuations occurring nationwide each year.
Li also noted that residual immunity from previous infections also helps reduce disease severity, with most reinfections presenting as mild upper respiratory symptoms that resolve within about a week. The single COVID-related death reported nationwide in July further indicates that the current fatality rate remains very low.
Judging from historical epidemic patterns and current case growth trajectories, national infection figures may begin to decline in late August. Nationwide case numbers are now nearly at their peak, with declines already observed in some regions, said Li.
The Chinese CDC also said on Thursday that surveillance had not detected any variants posing major public health risks, nor had the current wave caused notable disruptions to the healthcare system.
The public is advised to take appropriate protective measures, including wearing masks when necessary, maintaining good personal hygiene, adopting healthy lifestyles and getting vaccinated as recommended.
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尽管和华尔街大多数机构一样，高盛预计英伟达第二季度业绩将表现强劲，业绩指引存在显著上修空间，但高盛分析师仍然暗示——这并不意味着公司股价能够在财报公布后上涨。 优秀业绩恐无法提振股价 高盛分析师施耐德（James Schneider ）在最新研究报告中，对英伟达的业绩表现持乐观预期：“考虑到GPU供需格局紧张，（英伟达）本季度有望交出亮眼成绩单，业绩指引存在可观上调潜力。” 但需要注意的是，8月英伟达股价大幅上涨，上述利好或许已经被市场提前定价。高盛分析师指出，过去两周英伟达股价涨幅超12%，市场对这只股票的预期门槛已经抬升。 施耐德团队对英伟达第二、第三季度每股收益（EPS）的预测，分别比华尔街市场一致预期高出6%与12%。但尽管业绩预测高于市场共识，但高盛给出的公司目标价（285美元）却仍略低于市场平均目标价。 施耐德团队认为，英伟达当前股价较其评估的合理价值仍存在较大折价。分析师补充，该股估值仍具备重估上行空间，但前提是三大催化因素落地： 1.超大规模云厂商盈利指标持续改善，支撑资本开支增长的可持续性； 2.英伟达在客户融资平台上保持审慎可控的资本支出，以此缓解市场对于供应商循环融资的担忧； 3.公司继续坚定推进大规模股票回购与分红计划。 施耐德团队还特别表示，投资者们将在英伟达财报电话会议上，重点关注五大信息： 1、客户融资平台的相关细节，及其对资本配置带来的影响； 2、Vera Rubin平台在2026年下半年的落地推进进展； 3、毛利率走势以及上游原材料成本情况； 4、由智能体AI（Agentic AI）带动的CPU需求； 5、行业竞争格局变化。
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GPU旺盛需求背后暗藏股价隐患 尽管当前AI热潮仍然如火如荼，市场对英伟达GPU的需求也依旧旺盛，然而高盛指出，GPU旺盛需求背后仍然暗藏着股价的回调风险。 首先，英伟达想要实现每一个季度都“业绩超预期+上调指引”的难度正在加大。 此外，虽然各大云厂商仍在持续上调资本开支计划，但无法确定接下来他们是否还会继续加码，这会对接下来两个季度业绩形成压力。 高盛指出，英伟达若想在财报公布之后实现股价大涨，仅仅做到常规的“业绩超预期、上调指引”已经不够，还需要释放具备重大分量的新消息。 回顾过往，英伟达此前在2027财年一季报中大幅上调分红，但财报披露次日股价依旧收跌，这表明单纯的利好已经不会必然驱动股价走高。 另一重矛盾点在于，GPU以及AI产业链其他零部件的需求火爆推高了产品价格，却也加重了部分英伟达核心客户的财务负担。 在本月初，英伟达联合阿波罗、贝莱德、黑石、高盛、KKR等多家华尔街机构，共同搭建AI算力基础设施融资平台，计划撬动超过5000亿美元第三方资本。 高盛分析师指出，考虑到部分大客户难以承担高涨的算力采购需求，市场对于供应商循环融资的担忧不断升温，而英伟达目前的表态尚不足以打消这份顾虑。
C | 而高盛希望英伟达能够在财报电话会上，对这一融资平台做出详细说明。 高盛分析师的言外之意非常明晰：即便高盛看好英伟达未来12个月的业绩和股价走势，也预判公司大概率会在本周交出超预期的财报与指引，但除非英伟达抛出重磅新利好，否则财报发布后，英伟达股价更有可能出现下跌，而非大幅冲高。（文章来源：财联社）。
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